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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Forecast text

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2026 Jan 02 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 02-Jan 04 2026 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 02-Jan 04 2026

	Jan 02	Jan 03	Jan 04
00-03UT	3.00	5.00 (G1)	3.67
03-06UT	4.00	6.00 (G2)	3.33
06-09UT	3.33	6.00 (G2)	2.00
09-12UT	2.33	4.67 (G1)	3.00
12-15UT	2.00	4.00	3.00
15-18UT	2.00	3.00	2.00
18-21UT	2.33	3.00	3.33
21-00UT	4.67 (G1)	4.33	3.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storming levels are likely on 02 Jan due to the combination of HSS activity and potential glancing blows from the 28-30 Dec CMEs. By late on 02 Jan to early on 03 Jan, the arrival of the 31 Dec CME is expected to cause likely G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming. Additional geomagnetic storming is anticipated on 04 Jan with the possible impact of the 02 Jan CME.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 02-Jan 04 2026

	Jan 02	Jan 03	Jan 04
S1 or greater	10%	10%	10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event today through 04 Jan.

Radio Blackout Activity

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 02-Jan 04 2026

	Jan 02	Jan 03	Jan 04
R1-R2	55%	50%	45%
R3 or greater	10%	10%	10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events on 02 Jan. Levels are likely to decrease to a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout activity and a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event on 03-04 Jan as most regions on the visible disk continue to decay.

Sun Images

eit 171	eit 195	eit 284	eit 304


Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

SDO/HMI Continuum	SDO/HMI Magnetogram	LASCO C2	LASCO C3


The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.		LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.
for more information
Bigger versions of this page in a new window: New regular size page, New 1280×1024 window, and New 1600×1200 window.

Solar cycle

Sunspot numbers	F10.7CM Radio flux	AP


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The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. Solar maximum in May, 2013.

Solar wind	Satellite impact	Xray flux


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On the left: Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. Middle: The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment. Right: 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.

Auroral activity

Northern Auroral map	Southern Auroral map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

Introduction Movie

Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.

Also in Quicktime format: Large (269M) and Small ( 60M).

links

Space Weather links:

Losts of interesting information
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Solar wind
Forecast discussion
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images

Space Agencies:
European Space Agency (ESA)
Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS)
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Russian Space Agency

Credits:

Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).

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